NASCAR Cup forecast
Driver win, top-5 and top-10 probabilities from public NASCAR results, chronological pairwise finish-order Elo ratings and a field Monte Carlo.
Data: 80 completed Cup races across 2024, 2025, 2026 · 71 drivers · latest completed race: FireKeepers Casino 400 (2026-06-07).
Current field proxy
Latest known field: FireKeepers Casino 400
Walk-forward log loss: 3.577
| Driver | Rating | Win | Top 5 | Top 10 | Mean finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 1728.2 | 4.2% | 17.1% | 32.3% | 17.5 |
| Ryan Blaney | 1723.0 | 3.6% | 16.5% | 30.2% | 18.0 |
| Tyler Reddick | 1728.7 | 3.6% | 15.9% | 31.2% | 17.8 |
| Denny Hamlin | 1726.1 | 3.5% | 16.9% | 32.4% | 17.6 |
| William Byron | 1721.0 | 3.4% | 14.5% | 29.0% | 18.2 |
| Christopher Bell | 1728.5 | 3.4% | 16.0% | 31.3% | 17.6 |
| Ty Gibbs | 1713.5 | 3.1% | 14.2% | 28.6% | 18.4 |
| Ryan Preece | 1707.8 | 3.1% | 13.8% | 27.6% | 18.8 |
| Bubba Wallace | 1710.2 | 3.0% | 15.3% | 29.0% | 18.4 |
| Alex Bowman | 1707.6 | 3.0% | 14.0% | 28.0% | 18.7 |
| Austin Hill(i) | 1694.6 | 2.9% | 13.1% | 25.1% | 19.5 |
| Chris Buescher | 1720.4 | 2.9% | 15.4% | 29.7% | 18.1 |
| Austin Cindric | 1697.5 | 2.9% | 13.6% | 25.8% | 19.4 |
| Chase Briscoe | 1715.9 | 2.9% | 14.4% | 28.0% | 18.6 |
| Carson Hocevar | 1704.3 | 2.9% | 13.2% | 26.1% | 19.3 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 1696.9 | 2.8% | 13.7% | 26.8% | 19.1 |
| Daniel Suarez | 1705.2 | 2.8% | 13.5% | 27.5% | 19.1 |
| Michael McDowell | 1698.1 | 2.8% | 13.9% | 27.5% | 19.0 |
| Todd Gilliland | 1694.2 | 2.7% | 13.7% | 27.3% | 19.0 |
| Joey Logano | 1714.1 | 2.6% | 14.0% | 28.1% | 18.7 |
Honest limitation: until a future entry-list adapter is added, this page simulates the latest completed Cup field rather than a next-race official entry list.